As winter approaches, club football has been back in season for only three months. The Ballon d’Or for 2025 was only just awarded to PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé, capping a stellar year for the Frenchman that saw his side win the quadruple. With that being said, it’s never too early to look out for this season’s breakout players.

With the World Cup coming this summer, it may have the final say in next year’s awards, like in 2022 with Lionel Messi when he took the trophy over expected-winner Erling Haaland.

Let’s start off with one of the best strikers of this generation, yet has never touched the trophy so often held by Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo over the last decade. Harry Kane has found a new life at Bayern Munich, winning the title last season to bring his side back to winning ways. The former Spurs captain has blasted in 13 goals in ten Bundesliga matches, and took home a brace against Albania in England’s most recent WC qualifiers. With the Three Lions already locked in for the tournament next summer, Kane could take great advantage of a long English run. Ollie Watkins has faltered as of late, and with few options at striker, Kane may need to play more minutes than usual.

Heading over to the Premier League, Manchester City’s main man Haaland, seems back to that 2022 form that saw him almost take home the Ballon d’Or. Unfortunately, he had the disadvantage of Norway being exempt from the World Cup, but he has led his nation to a ticket to the 2026 edition. That, on top of his great club form so far, gives him a great shot, with 14 goals netted in 11 games in the Premier League so far. Manchester City are in a run for the domestic title, currently in second place behind Arsenal, a squad known to falter at some point in the season and forfeit the top spot. Should Haaland take home the title after a disappointing 2024 season, the comeback with the statistics could get him his first Ballon d’Or.

Staying on strikers, Kylian Mbappé is in the talks as always. In his second season at Real Madrid, #9 is bagging goals left, right, and center. While unlucky to finally leave Paris Saint-Germain the season before they captured the elusive Champions League trophy, Madrid are off to a hot-start in the league. Mbappe has 13 league goals in 12 matches, with Madrid currently leading the race in La Liga; should they win, the French superstar will take home his first La Liga title after Barcelona ran an amazing campaign last season. France are looking to be a World Cup contender, and if Mbappé can get his second WC in three tries, it may not matter what Kane or Haaland do.

First, if anyone is going to break the deadlock that attackers have on the Ballon d’Or, it’s going to be a teammate of last year’s winner: Vitinha. The PSG midfielder finished third in last year’s rankings, as he was a vital part of that quadruple-winning side. He put in great performances for the national team as well as Portugal captured the Nations League, beating the Euro 2024 winners, Spain. Vitinha converted his penalty when the final went to shootouts, capping a great time at the tournament for PSG’s young but promising star. However, Portugal don’t appear to be top contenders at the WC, and in WC years the Ballon d’Or weighs heavily on success in the tournament. Vitinha may be out of luck.

Back to attackers, and this one is surely a shout, but take a look at Kane’s teammate, Michael Olise. Sure, continental success for Bayern will likely end up in Kane taking the trophy, but should England falter and France succeed in the WC, and they both put up impressive numbers, it is possible that the French winger takes home gold. Olise, while impressive at Crystal Palace, grew tremendously in his first season at Bayern last year and was ranked in the top 30 for the Ballon d’Or. While his numbers aren’t world-class so far, the top three mentioned earlier are all strikers. If Bayern take home the Champions League title, which is very possible, and France wins or goes far in the summer of 2026, the stars could align for the stellar forward.

For better or worse, the World Cup has a big say. While these stars battle it out in their domestic leagues, racking up goals and assists, and fighting for Champions League glory, the world may have to wait til next summer to have a clear favorite to take home the most important individual award in football.

1. Harry Kane, Bayern Munich and England
2. Erling Haaland, Manchester City and Norway
3. Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid and France
4. Vitinha, Paris Saint-Germain and Portugal
5. Lamine Yamal, Barcelona and Spain
6. Michael Olise, Bayern Munich and France
7. Ousmane Dembélé, Paris Saint-Germain and France
8. Robert Lewandowski, Barcelona and Poland
9. Achraf Hakimi, Paris Saint-Germain and Morocco
10. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Paris Saint-Germain and Georgia