With the primaries underway and the general elections just nine months away, it’s crucial to look beyond the US and discuss the global impacts of this year’s election results. In a time of extreme polarization in the United States, concerns are rising about the United States’ possible decreased dependability, regardless of who wins the presidential election. The number of domestic conflicts may interfere with the next president’s ability to address global conflicts such as those in the Middle East and Ukraine.
To quote President Emmanuel Macron of France, to many of the United States’ allies, it seems America’s “first priority is itself.” As one of the most powerful countries on the planet, other countries have always looked to the United States for support and leadership in times of conflict. As the country struggles with a politically divided society, allies are weary of how much they can count on the United States when it is so consumed with its own problems.
Many trace these emerging tensions back to President Trump’s presidency. During his time in office, he strained many alliances with European countries by ridiculing leaders like Germany’s Angela Merkel and Britain’s Theresa May. Not only did he make fun of European leaders, but he also praised the authoritarian leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin and called China’s Xi Jinping “brilliant.”
Others see Trump as a destabilizing force as he took the United States out of the deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Since that decision, Iran has accelerated its work. Current President Joe Biden criticized this decision but hasn’t been able to restrengthen ties with Iran.
Trump has always been publicly skeptical of NATO and other treaties and alliances, criticizing the billions the United States has spent on the organization that is critical to supporting Ukraine. On February 10th, 2024, Trump warned NATO allies and said that as President, he would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want.” NATO’s Secretary General later called out Trump for undermining the security of all NATO countries with his radical comments.
President Joe Biden has made supporting Ukraine a top priority. In 2020, he asserted that America is back on the global stage; however, Congressional Republicans have stalled military aid for Ukraine, and the US currently has been unable to contain the conflict in the Middle East. These issues undermine Biden’s assertion and further highlight the United State’s arguably inefficient foreign policy in the face of extreme domestic political polarization.
Regardless of the 2024 presidential election race winner, NATO allies are growing weary of the United States’ reliability, and many see the United States losing its position as the indisputable global superpower. French President Macron expressed his desire for a stronger Europe to protect itself without dependence on others. He explained his belief that after itself, the United States’ top priority is China, not Europe. The Polish Prime Minister said, “We must realize that the EU can not be an economic and civilizational giant and a dwarf when it comes to defense because the world has changed.”
None of the United States’ allies have openly expressed a preference for the outcome of the elections this year; however, many are similar in their desires for a stronger EU as they see the United States’ support for Ukraine and other conflicts weakening.
Some of America’s rivals express a more clear viewpoint. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia prefers Biden to Trump, calling him more experienced and predictable. China, on the other hand, believes it is a choice between two evils. Under Trump, initial warmth quickly turned into rising tensions with China, which Biden has done little to change. A Chinese professor called Trump and Biden “two bowls of poison.”
International perspectives of the United States may be shifting away from a global superpower to a country that is too busy dealing with its own problems to take a strong lead in global issues.
The United States election will impact not just our country but also the entire world. These tensions speak to the global impact of a vote. Internal conflicts cause much more than domestic polarization; they actively polarize and distance the United States from the rest of the world. This year, each individual vote is so profoundly influential as the leader of the United States will determine our role on the global stage for the next four years.
